Monday, August 17, 2009

Real Estate - News


The real-estate industry is lobbying the Federal Reserve for modifications to a bailout program that the industry said may avert a wave of commercial-property defaults.

Real-estate owners and investors who have talked to the Fed predict the central bank will begin offering some five-year loans under the government's Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF. That is longer than the three-year loans being offered.

While it may be a small change, the length of loans is a critical matter to the Fed, which prefers to make short-term loans. Longer-dated loans could make it more difficult for the Fed to fight inflation, as the bank can't pull back the money injected into the economy.

Real-estate investors, however, said the longer-term debt is critical to saving the commercial real-estate business, which faces a record amount of debt coming due in the next three years. Industry observers are expecting the delinquency rate to double by the end of this year and go higher next year. Problems could be magnified if the credit drought continues and owners of even healthy properties are unable to refinance.

Fed officials declined to comment on details, and some people familiar with the talks said that no decisions have been made yet. Industry executives are hopeful that the Fed will announce the program modification and other details by the end of the month.

The Treasury Department also has said that the Fed is working to ensure that the duration of the TALF loans "take into account the duration of the underlying assets." TALF makes low-cost loans available to investors who buy securities backing everything from credit cards to auto loans.

Anticipating that TALF will be modified, a number of investment firms, including BlackRock Inc., Prudential Financial Inc. and ING Groep NV unit ING Clarion Partners LLC, are positioning themselves to use the TALF program to buy high-quality commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS. Some of them aim to raise billions of dollars for that purpose.

Commercial-property debt is expected to be one of the most attractive TALF-eligible assets, because it is collateralized by office buildings, malls, warehouses and other income-producing real estate. It is perceived as less risky than consumer credit such as credit-card debt and car loans.

"We're gearing up to raise funds" to tap into the leverage offered by TALF to buy highly rated CMBS bonds, said Steve Switzky, a managing director and portfolio manager at BlackRock.

Industry executives hope that the TALF effort will resurrect the CMBS market. In 2007, about $230 billion of securities were sold. That number dropped to zero by last summer. The dearth of financing has frozen sales and sent values plummeting, setting the stage for another wave of defaults that could cripple some banks and other lenders.

The first TALF-eligible deals, involving securitized car loans and credit-card cash flows, began in March, but investor response to the program has been anemic. Investors applied for just $1.71 billion in loans on Tuesday in the second round of TALF, according to the central bank. That follows applications for $4.71 billion last month.

Obama administration officials have been promising for weeks that the TALF would be expanded to include commercial real estate. But details have been sketchy and have been a subject of debate between policy makers and the private sector.

"We're continuing working with market participants," said a New York Fed spokeswoman, who declined to comment on any specifics.

The $700 billion market for existing CMBS, which is as big as the markets for securitized auto loans, credit cards and student loans combined, has rallied in the past two weeks on hopes for TALF. Yields on the highest-quality CMBS bonds have fallen to 12% from 14% one month ago, according to Trepp LLC, which tracks the commercial-property debt market.

Bringing down the yields on existing debt is critical to spark new lending, said market participants, because investors can buy top-rated CMBS bonds that offer yields close to that of junk bonds. Those higher yields crowd out the market for new issues.

"With triple-A CMBS currently yielding as much as 15%, this doesn't bode well for property values," said Jim Higgins, chief executive officer at Sorin Capital Management, a Stamford, Conn., hedge-fund firm that is interested in participating in the TALF program.

Policy makers believe it is critical to get credit flowing to the $6.5 trillion real-estate industry. Defaults likely would rise if borrowers were unable to refinance loans as they become due.

But commercial real estate also has presented a conundrum for the Fed, because most real-estate loans are made for more than five years. Fed officials are hesitant to getting locked into long-term obligations. Earlier this year, the Fed reluctantly stretched the TALF's duration to three years from one.

The possibility of extending it further has made some regulators uneasy.

But in meetings and phone calls with New York Fed officials, who are leading the TALF effort, commercial real-estate executives and CMBS investors have pressed them to extend the program's term.

"TALF is going to be the first step in freeing up the liquidity and breaking the logjam" in the commercial real-estate debt market, said Gayle P. Starr, head of capital markets at AMB Property Corp., one of the nation's largest owners of industrial properties

Real Estate Industry - Finding Jobs in Real Estate

Up-market homes consistently sell above asking in a New Jersey suburb. Bidding wars break out in hot neighborhoods in Cape Cod, Chicago and Seattle. Short sales in some Florida and California markets draw as many as 40 bids.

It's a far cry from 2006, but brokers and agents across the country say multiple offers are once again the norm in specific corners of the market.

"The banks are purposely putting them on the market under value and creating a frenzy," says Kristi Townsend of Altera Real Estate in Mission Viejo, Calif., where dozens of cars recently lined up in front of one bank-owned house the day it listed.

In many areas with heavy short-sale and foreclosure activity, prices in the last few months have reached a point where investors and first-time buyers are clamoring for the best deals. Even in more subdued markets where prices haven't fallen as far, buyers face a competitive market for houses in hot neighborhoods at the right price.

Seattle broker and Realtor Sam DeBord says a couple recently made an offer on a house that was on the market for three days, only to be trumped by one of nine other offers. On their next try, they offered full price on a property that was on the market for two days and beat out two other bids to get the house.

"We've really seen pockets like that" in the last few months, DeBord says. Not all parts of town fare so well, but in his clients' Ballard neighborhood the median time on the market is only 12 days.

"When something comes on that's $300,000, everybody comes to see it the first weekend," DeBord says.

Property values in the Seattle area are down about 20 percent from their 2007 peak, according to the Zillow Home Value Index, and a National Association of Realtors report this month stated that the median price of single-family resale homes in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area fell 13.7 percent from second-quarter 2008 to second-quarter 2009.

And as prices fall, sales are ramping up. Inventories have shrunk in recent months and pending sales in the four-county Puget Sound region were up 21 percent in July compared to the same month last year, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, a regional MLS.

Multiple offers seem to be making a comeback in a range of markets that lost value but remain highly desirable.

"Everybody and their dog is looking for a deal" among foreclosures and at prices under $200,000, says Heath Coker, broker-owner of the Cape Group in Cape Cod, Mass. For bank-owned, foreclosed properties (also known as real estate-owned properties or REOs), he traces part of bidding activity to banks' slow response to offers and price changes.

Even at the higher price points, Coker says he's seen bidding wars break out in certain locations, despite home values on the Cape at the beginning of the year falling 24 percent compared to 2008. ..

Thursday, August 13, 2009

CNN. news for Real Estate - Foreclosure

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The foreclosure plague continued to devastate last month.

There were more than 360,000 properties with foreclosure filings -- including default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions -- an increase of 7% from June and 32% from July 2008, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed homes. In fact, one in every 355 U.S. homes had at least one filing during July.

"July marks the third time in the last five months where we've seen a new record set for foreclosure activity," said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. "Despite continued efforts by the federal government and state governments to patch together a safety net for distressed homeowners, we're seeing significant growth in both the initial notices of default and in the bank repossessions."

The jump occurred as several foreclosure moratoriums phased out. They were initiated by many states to give the administration's foreclosure-prevention efforts time to work. But for many help did not come: The modification and refinancing programs have met with less success than hoped.

"It's starting to reach more and more people, but we have to do better and make sure the program reaches the millions of folks we intended it to reach," said Jared Bernstein, an economics adviser to vice president Biden.

The picture would be even worse, however, without the programs.

"Each of these programs nips away at the problem of excess supply," said Doug Duncan, cheif economist for Fannie Mae, "and fights against declining prices. ... The hope is that the aggregated programs will result in less loss than would happen in the free market."

Out of their homes
RealtyTrac statistics revealed that more than 87,000 properties were repossessed by lenders, effectively sending many families out of their homes. There have been a total of 464,058 repossessions -- or REOs in industry parlance -- so far this year (through the end of July).

"We're seeing more option ARM resets, triggering defaults and more prime loans, which are failing due to job losses," said RealtyTrac spokesman Rick Sharga.

That is resulting in more filings on higher priced homes, for two reasons: 1. option ARMs were typically used for more expensive properties; 2. borrowers using prime loans generally had better credit and were able to afford more expensive houses.

Best and worst
The worst hit areas continue to be in the "sand states," with California posting the highest number of total filings, 108,104, and Nevada posting the highest rate of foreclosure at one for every 56 homes.

The other hardest hit states are Arizona, at one filing for every 135 homes, and Florida, at one for every 154. Las Vegas, with one for every 47 homes, had the highest rate among metro areas. That's Sin City's 31st consecutive month topping the list.

These were bubble states, where home prices soared and banks financed mortgages for anyone who could fog a mirror.

"We're seeing the highest levels of foreclosures in the markets that had the highest appreciation [during the boom] and the worst lending practices," said Sharga.

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Tuesday, August 11, 2009

7 tips to finding lakefront properties for sale are as follows:

1. Decide on a location with historically low prices on waterfront properties and regularly check for sale listings there
2. Let friends and family members know you are in the market for waterfront properties and ask them for referrals
3. Find a broker that specializes in the sale of waterfront properties
4. If possible, find lakefront homes that are bank owned
5. Contact the bank and offer them a fair price for the property
6. If possible, find defaulted lakefront homes
7. Contact the owner of any lakefront properties in default and ask if they'd like to sell in order to avoid foreclosure and further damage to their credit

Monday, August 10, 2009

Now Renting in Atlanta

Houses, Condos and Townhouses
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Saturday, August 8, 2009

Today

Today, the real estate market involves so many foreclosed homes or properties that have begun the foreclosure process. If you're looking into entering the real estate industry and are hoping to make . you may want to look into foreclosed properties. There are many great prices on these homes and you can make massive amounts of profit when you sell them. However, there are also some risks involved. The risks that are related to buying one of these properties comes from the lack of protection systems that are typically present during a standard home sale. But the potential rewards of buying foreclosures far outweigh the risks. Especially if you arm yourself with these few tips that will help mitigate the risks.The first thing that you should know is that you don't necessarily have to pay for a listing of foreclosed properties. This information can be obtained for free from a few sources. A local real estate agent who is experienced in handling these types of properties can help you to find a listing of the available homes. The local courthouse will also provide you with this information. And finally you can get the listing information from the tax office as well.When you are buying these properties, you should make sure that you get a home inspection. This is often the only way that you will uncover problems with the property before you decide to buy. Many times a home that has been foreclosed will be in bad shape. There may be vandalism in the property or the utilities might be turned off as well. Try to have the utilities turned on before the home inspection. You should expect that an inspection will cost you between two hundred and fifty to four hundred dollars – a sum you will find is well worth theinvestment.Make sure that you buy title insurance. This will protect you from liens against the property. You will also find that it will protect the property in the event the previous owner tries to sue you for the home. Use a lawyer for any transaction involving a foreclosed property. This will protect you from problems with the contract and other parts of the transaction that could go wrong.You should not assume that the sale is final after you have purchased the foreclosed property. Depending on the particular state's laws, a homeowner is given a certain amount of time (up to six months in some states) after the foreclosure to pay off the debt and be able to reclaim the house.You should check out the area where you will be buying your foreclosed property. Cities such as Tampa or Las Vegas have had so many foreclosures in recent years that the market has weakened. You will find it difficult to sell a property in those areas. If you are looking for a home to buy that is in foreclosure, you should look in areas that are beginning to stabilize. Check the newspapers, magazines and other respected publications for news on the best markets for buying foreclosed homes.Buying a foreclosed property can be a risk, but the reward can be great if you do what you can to minimize the risks.

Thursday, August 6, 2009

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com)

-The Obama administration's first progress report on its foreclosure prevention plan confirms it is off to a slow start.

Just 9% of delinquent borrowers are in trial modifications so far, the Treasury Department said Tuesday. That translates into 235,247 loans that were at least two months delinquent.

Under fire for the program's rocky start, the Obama administration says it is on pace to help up to four million homeowners over the next three years. The initiative was announced in February and the first institutions to join began accepting applications in April.

Tuesday's report comes a week after the administration called servicers to Washington, D.C., to discuss ramping up the program's implementation after hearing a flood of complaints from borrowers. Officials want to see 500,000 loan modifications under way by Nov. 1.

By releasing the servicers' progress reports, the administration is hoping to hold institutions responsible for their performance. The monthly reports will allow the public to see which institutions are lagging in implementing the plan.

Institutions have extended modification offers to 406,542 troubled borrowers, or 15% of those behind in payments. The bulk of trial modifications have been done by a handful of servicers.

Performance was very uneven among the 38 servicers participating in the program. Saxon Mortgage Services, a subsidiary of Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500), led the pack, putting 25% of its delinquent loans into trial modifications, followed by Aurora Loan Services, a subsidiary of Lehman Brothers Bank, with 21%.

GMAC Mortgage, which is partly owned by the federal government, put 20% of its delinquent loans into trial modifications.

Among the major banks, JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) came in first with 20% of late loans in trial modifications, followed by Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) with 15%. Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) lagged with 6% and 5%, respectively.

Servicers contacted acknowledged they need to improve their performance, saying they were committed to the president's foreclosure prevention plan. They also stressed that they were doing many modifications outside of the administration's initiative.

Wells Fargo said it will eliminate its backlog within weeks, attributing it to the time lag between when the government announced the initiative and when it released the guidelines. It did not start modifying loans owned by private investors until the end of June, though it began adjusting loans owned by Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) in April.

The bank soon will be able to send eligible borrowers the trial modification agreement within 48 hours. In a change from past practices, it will enroll homeowners in a preliminary adjustment right away after receiving the initial application if they meet the basic eligibility requirements. During the three-month trial, the servicer will gather additional information to see whether the borrower qualifies for a permanent modification.

The shift should address concerns that the bank is not responding to customers as rapidly as it should, said Mike Heid, co-president of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, in an interview.

"We set a high bar for ourselves in terms of customer service, and we didn't hit that bar in all cases in the first seven months of this year," said Heid, noting that Wells Fargo added 4,000 employees in its loan workout division this year.

Chase, which said it has another 150,000 applications to process, is in the midst of training an additional 950 workout specialists hired earlier this year. This brings its modification staff to 3,500 people.

"We know we've got more work to do," said Tom Kelly, a Chase spokesman, noting that the bank is pleased with its performance to date.

CitiMortgage, the mortgage arm of Citigroup, has added 1,400 people to its modification team and opened a call center in Tuscon with 800 people dedicated to loss mitigation. The company started putting people in trial modifications in early June and expects the volume to grow.

"In the next quarter, one can expect the pace will be even higher," Sanjiv Das, head of CitiMortgage, said in an interview.

Bank of America also acknowledged it needs to improve its efforts to reach out to those in need, but noted that it accounts for nearly one in four trial modifications offered under the Obama plan. The bank has extended nearly 100,000 offers, though only 28,000 trial modifications are under way.

The bank, which purchased mortgage titan Countrywide Financial last year, has by far the largest number of eligible delinquent loans: nearly 800,000.

Both the Obama administration and the industry are feeling mounting pressure from borrowers who say their servicers are not responding to their calls and applications, losing their paperwork or not making decisions. The financial institutions said they are ramping up their staffing and computer systems to handle the crush of applications.

Treasury officials said they are working with servicers to make sure they can implement the program. In addition to increasing staff and training, servicers must treat borrowers with more respect and respond in a more timely manner, said Michael Barr, assistant Treasury secretary for financial institutions.

"For us, the bottom line is they need to reach the borrowers," Barr said. "We will be requiring ramped-up effort across the board. We expect them to do more."

Moving quickly is important. The number of people falling behind on their payments continues to mount, especially as unemployment rises. Some 1.5 million people fell into foreclosure in the first half of 2009, up 15% from a year ago.

Meeting the criteria
Participation in the program is voluntary, though once an institution agrees to participate, it must offer a trial modification to those who meet the criteria. The 38 participating servicers cover 85% of mortgages.

The loan modification plan allows eligible borrowers who are in or at risk of default to lower their monthly payments to no more than 31% of their pre-tax income through a loan modification. Adjusting the loan must recover more value than foreclosing on the home would for a modification to be offered.

The adjustments are made permanent after the homeowner makes three on-time payments. Homeowners, servicers and mortgage investors receive thousands of dollars in incentive payments in hopes of increasing participation.

So far, the government has committed $20 billion to the effort and has said it would provide $75 billion overall.

Monday, August 3, 2009

Real Estate Nationwide

A report released last week from the National Association of Realtors showed that in the last three months of 2006 home sales fell in 40 states and median home prices dropped in nearly half of the metropolitan areas surveyed. The median price of a previously owned, single family home fell in 73 of the 149 metropolitan areas surveyed in the 4th quarter.

The National Association of Realtors report also said that the states with the biggest declines in the number of sales in October through December compared with the same period in 2005 were:

* Nevada: -36.1% in sales

* Florida: -30.8% in sales

* Arizona: -26.9% in sales

* California: -21.3% in sales

Nationally, sales declined by 10.1% in the 4th quarter compared with the same period a year ago. And the national median price fell to $219,300, down 2.7% from the 4th quarter of 2005.

Slower sales and cancellations of existing orders have caused the number of unsold homes to really increase. The supply of homes at 2006 sales rate averaged 6.4 months worth which was up from 4.4 months worth in 2005 and only 4 months worth in 2004.

Toll Brothers, Inc., the largest US luxury home builder, reported a 33% drop in orders during the quarter ending January 31.

Perhaps most importantly, falling home values will further decrease their use of mortgage equity withdrawal loans. In 2006, mortgage equity withdrawal accounted for 2% of GDP growth. Construction added 1% to last years GDP growth, so the importance of these factors are to the health of the US economy are enormous.

The other concern is sub-prime mortgages. Today, sub-prime mortgages amount to 25% of all mortgages, around $665 billion. Add to this the fact that approximately $1 trillion in adjustable-rate mortgages are eligible to be reset in the next two years and we will continue to see rising foreclosures. For example, foreclosures are up five times in Denver. These foreclosed homes come back onto the market and depress real estate values.

The Center for Responsible Lending estimates that as many as 20% of the subprime mortgages made in the last 2 years could go into foreclosure. This amounts to about 5% of the total homes sold coming back on the market at "fire-sales". Even if only 1/2 of that actually comes back on the market, it would cause overall valuations to go down and the ability to get home mortgage equity loans to decrease further.

Real Estate in South Florida

Real estate in South Florida has been hit hard by this slowdown as it was one of the largest advancers during the housing boom. The combination of rising homes for sale on the market, the amazing amount of construction occurring in the area and higher interest rates have been three of the major factors of the slowdown.

For every home that sold in the South Florida area in 2006, an average of 14 did not sell according to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data. The number of homes available for sale on the market doubled to around 66,000, as sales slowed to their lowest level in 10 years.

Even though home prices were up for the year of 2006, the average asking price for homes in December was down about 13 percent compared to a year ago. From 2001 to 2005, the price of a single-family home in Miami-Dade increased 120 percent to $351,200. This is also similar to what happened in Broward County. The problem is that wages during that time only increased by 17.6% in Miami-Dade, and 15.9% in Broward, according to federal data. This is the other major factor that is contributing to the slowdown - real estate prices far outpaced incomes of potential buyers of these homes.

Another factor that helped drive the South Florida boom in prices was high growth in population in Florida. From 2002 to 2005, more than a million new residents moved to Florida and Florida also added more jobs than any other state. However, the three largest moving companies reported that 2006 was the first time in years that they had moved more people out of the state of Florida than into it. Also, school enrollment is declining which could be another sign that middle-class families are leaving.

By far though, the area of South Florida real estate that will be hit hardest is and will continue to be the condominium market. Due to their lower prices than homes, condos make financial sense in the South Florida area. However, the supply of available condos has tripled over the past year and it will get worse before it gets better. More than 11,500 new condos are expected this year and 15,000 next year with the majority of them being built in Miami.

As a result of the oversupply, asking prices for condos are down 12% in 2006 in Miami to $532,000. And incentives are substituting for price cuts. These incentives include paying all closing costs to free upgrades and more.

The last point to think about affecting South Florida real estate is the escalating costs of property insurance and property taxes. These increasing costs are putting more downward pressure on real estate prices.

My strong belief is that we are only starting to see the slowdown of the South Florida real estate market and that prices will continue to fall. Due to the fact that many real estate investors are pulling out, where are the next wave of buyers going to come from at these current prices? Unless a serious influx of new, high paying jobs enter the South Florida area, real estate prices, just like any asset that falls out of favor after a large runup only have one way to go... down.

What's Happening In Real Estate Right Now

1. Analysis of Today's Market

2. Update On Gold

3. Real Estate Prices In South Florida

4. Real Estate Nationwide

5. Yield Curve Is Still Inverted

6. What this means to you

1. Analysis of today's market

As an analyst of the economy and the real estate market, one must be patient to see what unfolds and to see if one's predictions are right or wrong. One never knows if they will be right or wrong, but they must have a sense of humility about it so that they are not blind to the reality of the marketplace.

In March of 2006, my eBook How To Prosper In the Changing Real Estate Marketplace. Protect Yourself From The Bubble Now! stated that in short order the real estate market would slow down dramatically and become a real drag on the economy. We are experiencing this slowdown currently and the economy I feel is not far from slowing down as well. History has repeatedly shown that a slow down in the real estate market and construction market has almost always led to an economic recession throughout America's history.

Let's look at what is happening in the following areas to see what we can gleam from them: Gold, Real Estate in South Florida, Real Estate Nationwide, Yield Curve/Economy and see what this means to you:

2. Gold

If you have read this newsletter and/or the eBook, you know I am a big fan of investing in gold. Why? Because I believe that the US dollar is in serious financial peril. But gold has also risen against all of the world's currencies, not just the US dollar.

Why has gold risen? Gold is a neutral form of currency, it can't be printed by a government and thus it is a long term hedge against currency devaluation. James Burton, Chief Executive of the Gold Council, recently said: "Gold remains a very important reserve asset for central banks since it is the only reserve asset that is no one's liability. It is thus a defense against unknown contingencies. It is a long-term inflation hedge and also a proven dollar hedge while it has good diversification properties for a central bank's reserve asset portfolio."

I agree with Mr. Burton 100%. I believe we will even see a bubble in gold again and that is why I have invested in gold to profit from this potential bubble (Think real estate prices around the year 2002 - wouldn't you like to have bought more real estate back then?)

I had previously recommended that you buy gold when it was between $580 and $600 an ounce. Currently, gold is trading at around $670 an ounce up more than 10% from the levels I recommended. However, gold has some serious technical resistance at the $670 level and if it fails to break out through that level it might go down in the short-term. If it does go down again to the $620 - $640 level, I like it at these levels as a buy. I believe that gold will go to $800 an ounce before the end of 2007.


3. Real Estate in South Florida

Real estate in South Florida has been hit hard by this slowdown as it was one of the largest advancers during the housing boom. The combination of rising homes for sale on the market, the amazing amount of construction occurring in the area and higher interest rates have been three of the major factors of the slowdown.

For every home that sold in the South Florida area in 2006, an average of 14 did not sell according to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data. The number of homes available for sale on the market doubled to around 66,000, as sales slowed to their lowest level in 10 years.

Even though home prices were up for the year of 2006, the average asking price for homes in December was down about 13 percent compared to a year ago. From 2001 to 2005, the price of a single-family home in Miami-Dade increased 120 percent to $351,200. This is also similar to what happened in Broward County. The problem is that wages during that time only increased by 17.6% in Miami-Dade, and 15.9% in Broward, according to federal data. This is the other major factor that is contributing to the slowdown - real estate prices far outpaced incomes of potential buyers of these homes.

Another factor that helped drive the South Florida boom in prices was high growth in population in Florida. From 2002 to 2005, more than a million new residents moved to Florida and Florida also added more jobs than any other state. However, the three largest moving companies reported that 2006 was the first time in years that they had moved more people out of the state of Florida than into it. Also, school enrollment is declining which could be another sign that middle-class families are leaving.

By far though, the area of South Florida real estate that will be hit hardest is and will continue to be the condominium market. Due to their lower prices than homes, condos make financial sense in the South Florida area. However, the supply of available condos has tripled over the past year and it will get worse before it gets better. More than 11,500 new condos are expected this year and 15,000 next year with the majority of them being built in Miami.

As a result of the oversupply, asking prices for condos are down 12% in 2006 in Miami to $532,000. And incentives are substituting for price cuts. These incentives include paying all closing costs to free upgrades and more.

The last point to think about affecting South Florida real estate is the escalating costs of property insurance and property taxes. These increasing costs are putting more downward pressure on real estate prices.

My strong belief is that we are only starting to see the slowdown of the South Florida real estate market and that prices will continue to fall. Due to the fact that many real estate investors are pulling out, where are the next wave of buyers going to come from at these current prices? Unless a serious influx of new, high paying jobs enter the South Florida area, real estate prices, just like any asset that falls out of favor after a large runup only have one way to go... down.