Real Estate in South Florida

Real estate in South Florida has been hit hard by this slowdown as it was one of the largest advancers during the housing boom. The combination of rising homes for sale on the market, the amazing amount of construction occurring in the area and higher interest rates have been three of the major factors of the slowdown.

For every home that sold in the South Florida area in 2006, an average of 14 did not sell according to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data. The number of homes available for sale on the market doubled to around 66,000, as sales slowed to their lowest level in 10 years.

Even though home prices were up for the year of 2006, the average asking price for homes in December was down about 13 percent compared to a year ago. From 2001 to 2005, the price of a single-family home in Miami-Dade increased 120 percent to $351,200. This is also similar to what happened in Broward County. The problem is that wages during that time only increased by 17.6% in Miami-Dade, and 15.9% in Broward, according to federal data. This is the other major factor that is contributing to the slowdown - real estate prices far outpaced incomes of potential buyers of these homes.

Another factor that helped drive the South Florida boom in prices was high growth in population in Florida. From 2002 to 2005, more than a million new residents moved to Florida and Florida also added more jobs than any other state. However, the three largest moving companies reported that 2006 was the first time in years that they had moved more people out of the state of Florida than into it. Also, school enrollment is declining which could be another sign that middle-class families are leaving.

By far though, the area of South Florida real estate that will be hit hardest is and will continue to be the condominium market. Due to their lower prices than homes, condos make financial sense in the South Florida area. However, the supply of available condos has tripled over the past year and it will get worse before it gets better. More than 11,500 new condos are expected this year and 15,000 next year with the majority of them being built in Miami.

As a result of the oversupply, asking prices for condos are down 12% in 2006 in Miami to $532,000. And incentives are substituting for price cuts. These incentives include paying all closing costs to free upgrades and more.

The last point to think about affecting South Florida real estate is the escalating costs of property insurance and property taxes. These increasing costs are putting more downward pressure on real estate prices.

My strong belief is that we are only starting to see the slowdown of the South Florida real estate market and that prices will continue to fall. Due to the fact that many real estate investors are pulling out, where are the next wave of buyers going to come from at these current prices? Unless a serious influx of new, high paying jobs enter the South Florida area, real estate prices, just like any asset that falls out of favor after a large runup only have one way to go... down.